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Sweet Tea & Day Dreams

November 4, 2008

What Tonight’s Votes Could Mean

Here’s an interesting analysis on today’s election from Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire.

7 p.m. — Polls close in Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina, Virginia and Kentucky.

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If Virginia is called quickly for Obama, it means he likely wins the presidential race and Democrats across the country will have a huge night. If it’s not called early, it’s could be an indication that white undecided voters are breaking to McCain. Prepare for an hour long discussion of the “Bradley effect.” If Georgia or Indiana are called early for Obama, it’s a leading indicator for a landslide.

In Kentucky, all eyes are on the fate of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

7:30 p.m. — Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

Obama victories in North Carolina or Ohio likely seal the deal for him. An Obama win in West Virginia means start looking for Obama coattails in close House and Senate races.

8:00 p.m. — Polls close in Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

If Pennsylvania is called early for Obama, McCain cannot win. His only real path to the presidency at this point requires he win the Keystone State. An Obama win in Missouri once again means a likely landslide in the electoral college.

9:00 p.m. — Polls close in Colorado and New Mexico.

Polls indicate both of these swing states should go to Obama. Early calls in each state will have Obama racking up electoral votes quickly.

10:00 p.m. — Polls close in Iowa, Montana, and Nevada.

If Obama wins in Montana and Nevada, we’re looking at a possible political realignment of the Mountain West of the United States.

11:00 p.m. — Polls close in California and North Dakota.

California is the biggest state of them all with 55 electoral votes and may put Obama over the top. If the election hasn’t been decided by now, it’s probably become an interesting night for the McCain campaign and Republicans. However, an Obama win in North Dakota means we’re witnessing a landslide.

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